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Romania's GDP will grow by 6.1% in 2018, according to the National Prognosis Commission

By Emea Riga
The Romanian winter economic forecast, published in early February by the National Prognosis Commission (CNP), shows a 6.1% increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year, after the CNP predicted economic growth in the autumn only 5.5% for 2018.
For the next three years, the CNP maintained GDP forecasts at 5.7% in 2019 and 2020, respectively, to 5% in 2021. The construction sector will become the main driver of GDP growth, ahead of the industry over the period 2018-2021 . This prefigures the government's policies on the development of major infrastructure, road, rail and maritime.
The trade balance will continue to be negative in the years to come, which illustrates spending on technology and machinery and structural imbalances in the economy.
The value of current Gross Domestic Product will rise to 924.2 billion lei this year, 995.4 billion lei in 2019, 1.072 billion lei in 2020 and 1.148 billion lei in 2021.
Final consumption is expected to increase by 6.3% this year, also projected to rise from 5.8% in the autumn, amid 6.6% in household consumption. Over the next three years, consumption growth will slow to 5.6% in 2019, 5.4% in 2020 and 4.9% in 2021.
On the other hand, gross fixed capital formation (investment) is set to reach 7.9% this year, 8.4% in 2019, 8.6% in 2020 and 7.4% in 2021.
The winter forecast of the CNP is currently in contradiction with the estimates of some international institutions regarding Romania's economic growth in the short term.
The European Commission expects for 2018 an advance of the Romanian economy of up to 4.4%, similar to that of the latest International Monetary Fund forecasts.
The World Bank also estimates GDP growth of 4.5% in 2018, while the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development predicted GDP growth of 4.2%.
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