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Prognosis Commission revises GDP growth projection down to 5.5%

By Jerom Bolt
The National Prognosis Commission (CNP) revised downwards to 5.5% its projection for GDP growth this year, from 6.1% in April.
The economic forecast institution also revised upwards it year-end inflation estimate from 3.2% to 3.5%.
According to the 2018 - 2022 Outlook of the Major Macroeconomic Indicators, GDP growth figures for the next three years remained unchanged at 5.7% in 2019 and 2020, and 5% in 2021. Year-end inflation figures for the interval 2019 - 2020 didn't change either, as CNP expects the consumer price index to be 2.8% in 2019; 2.5% in 2020 and 2.3% at the end of 2021.
Final consumption will slow down this year to 5.4% as to 8.4% in 2017; the figure is also revised from CNP's April projection of 6.3 pct. Household individual consumption will advance by 5.5% in 2018; 5.8% in 2019; 5.6% in 2020; and 5.2% in 2021.
Export and import related figures also remained unchanged: FOB export is expected to grow 8.7% this year compared to 9.1% the year before, and imports will go up 9.4% as to 12.2% in 2017.
Forecasts regarding the current account deficit are also nailed down at 3.1% of GDP this year; 2.8% of GDP in 2019; 2.6% of GDP in 2020; and 2.3% in 2021.
The exchange rate estimate is 4.65 lei/euro this year; 4.62 lei/euro in 2019; 4.60 lei/euro in 2020; 4.58 lei/euro in 2021.
The European Commission's summer interim economic forecast released on July 12 maintains the estimate for Romania's GDP growth at 4.5% this year and expects it to stand at 3.9% in 2019.
According to the EC, the inflation rate will advance to 4.2% this year, slowing down to 3.4% in 2019, while the unemployment rate will be 4.5% in 2018 and 4.4% in 2019.
The current account deficit is seen at 3.6% of GDP in 2018 and 3.9% in 2019, while the government debt will climb to 35.3% of GDP this year and will reach 36.4% of GDP in 2019.
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