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IMF brings the surprise: Romania is the most dynamic economy in the EU in 2017

>>>The other CEE countries have moderate increases compared to Romania: Poland, 3.8%, Bulgaria, 3.6%, Rep. Czech Republic, 3.5%, Slovakia, 3.3%, Hungary, 3.2%

By Constantin Radut

Great surprises and much optimism in the "World Economic Outlook" report, presented today by the International Monetary Fund in front of the international press. Some analysts wondered if the IMF changed the database for the forecasts that the international institution presented.
For Romania, the surprise is that the IMF estimates have been radically changed. Thus, the IMF experts have revised the estimates for the evolution of the Romanian economy this year, according to "World Economic Outlook", published on Tuesday by the international financial institution, from 4.2% to 5.5%. With such a forecast, Romania becomes the champion in the European Union in terms of economic growth in 2017. The rest of CEE economies have a modest increase in GDP compared to that of Romania. For Poland, IMF estimates an increase of 3.8% in 2017, for Bulgaria, 3.6%, Czech Republic, 3.5%, Slovakia, 3.3%, Hungary, 3.2%.
The IMF also improved its forecast for the growth rate of Romania's economy in 2018, up to 4.4%, compared with the 3.4% forecast expected in April.
Overall, Europe will see an economic growth of 2.5%, and Emerging Europe, including Romania, will have a GDP growth of 4.5%.
"Growth prospects have been improved for emerging Europe in 2017, reflecting stronger growth in Turkey, Russia and other countries in the region. For the whole group, expansion will reach 4.5% in 2017 (from 3% previously projected) and to 3.5% in 2018 (from 3.3% in April), "the IMF said in the World Economic Outlook.
As regards the evolution of consumer prices in Romania this year, the estimates of the international financial institution were revised downwards to a 1.1% increase, from a 1.3% advance as estimated in April, following as the pace of rising prices accelerates in 2018 to 3.3%, above the 3.1% previously projected by the IMF.
The IMF also revised the current account deficit projected by Romania to 3% in 2017 (from 2.8% previously) and 2.9% in 2018 (from 2.5% forecast in April).
On the other hand, the IMF revised downwards estimates for the unemployment rate in Romania, which is set to stand at 5.3% this year, compared with 5.4% as previously estimated, so to reach 2018 to 5.2%, similar to the forecast in April.
The National Institute of Statistics (NIS) has slightly revised the data on GDP growth in the second quarter of this year, according to new figures published on Tuesday, Romania's economy climbed 1.7% in real terms compared to the first quarter this year and 6.1% (gross series) compared to the same quarter of the previous year.

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The Romanian Business Journal
Constantin Radut
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